by DAVID HEARST
Everyone in the region, whatever their past history with the Islamic Republic, should do their utmost to defend Iran and guarantee its sovereignty
Barely a week has passed since US President Donald Trump waved his signature to the cameras at Davos on a charter for his so-called Board of Peace, and the Middle East is on a knife edge over the very real possibility of a third Gulf War.
It’s a familiar feeling. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrived within striking range of Iran on Sunday. F-15E Strike Eagles and B-52 bombers have been sent to Jordan and Qatar respectively.
Israel’s Channel 13 reported that the US military was preparing to reinforce its ground-based defences as well, with a Thaad air-defence battery expected to arrive in the coming days.
Israeli media have also been hard at work. Israel Hayom, the daily closest to the Israeli government, reported that Jordan, the UAE and the UK would provide logistical and intelligence support to the US military in the event of an attack.
This spurred the UAE to say publicly that it was committed “to not allowing its airspace, territory, or waters to be used in any hostile military actions against Iran… We affirm our commitment to not providing any logistical support to any hostile military action against Iran.”
This will be disregarded by Iran, whose senior officials have warned that the UAE has already gone too far. In the event of another attack, the Islamic Republic would not limit its retaliation to Israel and US military bases alone.
A senior Iranian official claimed to me last year that Israel was using Azerbaijan and the UAE in its dirty war against Iran. “We are definitely expecting another round of this war, and this time Iran will not be taken by surprise nor be on the defensive. It will go on the offensive,” he said.
“The UAE is going to pay a huge price. The next time we are attacked, it will spill over into the Gulf and the region.”
Targeting Khamenei
When Israel and the US attacked Iran last June, in a war that lasted 12 days, Tehran was misled by a forthcoming round of talks in Oman into believing that Israel would not strike before then.
At the time, the White House dismissed the notion that regime change was an objective of the strikes, which targeted senior military commanders, nuclear scientists, and the deep bunkers housing Iran’s uranium enrichment centrifuges.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, wanted regime change. He said that assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was “not going to escalate the conflict, it’s going to end the conflict”.
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