by A.G. NOORANI
The presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, did well to have virtual talks on Dec 7. But as the phrase goes, this was only breaking the ice.
Relations between the two countries have sunk to their lowest since the end of the Cold War in 1999. It is unlikely that the distrust between them was dispelled in the two hours of talk or will be dispelled at the summit in person which they both hope to hold.
The root cause of the problem is the US feeling of triumph over a perceived ‘victory’ in the Cold War and president George H.W. Bush’ breach of faith with the Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev. He had consented to Germany’s reunification even if it remained a member of Nato provided that the military alliance did not spread eastwards. It did.
In 2009, when, at the prompting of European states that had uneasy ties with Russia, the EU launched the Eastern Partnership, Moscow came up with the idea of a Eurasian economic union, where Ukraine would have a focal role. This was a strategic move by an anxious Russia that did not want to see its former components attracted by Nato or entering the EU fold, especially in the case of Ukraine, given its geographical proximity to both Russia and the EU.
The regime change in Ukraine on Feb 23, 2014, had shaken Moscow. Just a couple of days earlier, Ukraine’s president, who had refused to sign a free-trade agreement with the EU, inked a deal with the opposition for early polls and reinstatement of a parliamentary system, the aim being to stop the months-long bloody protests in Kiev. The agreement was “brokered by EU mediators in the presence of a Russian representative”.
But on Feb 22, the pro-Russia Ukrainian president fled the country. An interim president replaced him. An angry Russia invaded the country and annexed Crimea. The so-called Minsk agreement failed to establish peace. Once again, the unusual Russian build-up in the area has ignited fears of a major offensive, with the American president reportedly warning Moscow of economic sanctions.
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