BUH-BYE DUBYA, HELLO BARACK: OBAMA’S IN THE WHITE HOUSE AND THINGS IS GONNA GET CRAZY
by Planet S Staff
EASTERN PROMISES
“Obama’s Huge Headache.” That’s how BBC News, in a recent article by Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid, characterized the challenge facing Obama in terms of finding a peaceful solution to the current turmoil in south-central Asia — an area Rashid described as the “most explosive” in the world today.
Having already lost, as of Jan. 9, 107 troops in Afghanistan, Canada is committed to maintaining a military presence in that country as part of a U.S.-led NATO mission until 2011. So obviously, we have a huge stake in what Obama ends up doing in terms of both short term military and longer term diplomatic measures in the region.
During the election, Obama proposed scaling back U.S. involvement in Iraq and shifting 20,000 troops to Afghanistan to fight the resurgent Taliban — who, some estimates suggest, control 75 per cent of the country.
Twenty thousand sounds like an impressive number. But according to University of Saskatchewan political scientist Ron Wheeler, that would only boost NATO’s troop strength to around 100,000. During the ‘80s, he says, “the Soviets had a million troops there, and they had to fight their way out.”
In advance of Obama’s inauguration, Wheeler says, the Bush administration has already started shifting troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. “Obama is also going to have the same Secretary of Defence [Robert Gates] as Bush, and a lot of the same generals. So I don’t know that we’re going to see a significant change in the short run.”
Longer term, peace prospects probably rest on Obama’s commitment to a more inclusive foreign policy, untainted by the Christian fundamentalist fervour which was such a dominant force in the Bush White House, says University of Regina political scientist Shadia Drury.
“Obama has been silent so far on [the recent Israeli incursion into Gaza to confront Hamas militants], but he claims that after Jan. 20 he’s going to have a lot to say. I’d be very surprised if he uses the rhetoric of ‘Us versus Them’ or ‘God versus Satan’. That’s the same rhetoric Islamic extremists use — and when you get two sides confronting each other with this deadly brew the world is in trouble.”
In his BBC article, Rashid urged Obama and other Western leaders to see south-central Asia as “a unit with interlocking development issues to be resolved, such as poverty, illiteracy and weak governance.”
And in the case of long-time antagonists India and Pakistan, he might well have added, nuclear weapons.
“Eventually, relations between India and Pakistan have to improve,” says Wheeler. “Yet in the wake of the Mumbai terrorist attacks, the fact India has taken such a strong and angry line toward Pakistan is probably going to mean that Pakistan is going to have to keep some troops on its border with India.”
If that happens, Wheeler adds, “It could be a field day for the Taliban and other Islamists who are moving in and out of Afghanistan through northwest Pakistan.”
Currently, the majority of the U.S. troops are scheduled to be deployed in Kandahar — which is where the bulk of Canadian troops are stationed. “I think Obama’s emphasis on Afghanistan and multi-lateral diplomacy may end up putting some pressure on [Ottawa] to maintain a Canadian commitment beyond 2011,” says Wheeler. “It could be a long and bloody struggle.” And Canada may well be there until the bitter end — if such a thing ever comes. /Gregory Beatty
Read more
(Submitted by reader)