by ARIF RAFIQ
How can Pakistan navigate choppy waters while caught in the middle of competing ME interests with the Qatar crisis?
PAKISTAN’S CATCH-22
Last month, with the Saudi and Emirati-led efforts to isolate Qatar, and the militant Islamic State (IS) group’s attacks in Tehran, new fronts opened in the Greater Middle East war, making Pakistan’s regional balancing act even more difficult.
It wasn’t supposed to be this hard.
When Nawaz Sharif became prime minister for the third time in 2013, there was an expectation that Pakistan’s relationship with the Saudis would return to normal. Riyadh, it is said, kept President Asif Ali Zardari at a distance.
But Mian Sahib was different.
He had a deep history with the Saudis. Not just business interests. It also could be said that he owed his life to them. Riyadh gave him refuge in 2000, after he was deposed and put on trial by military ruler Gen Pervez Musharraf.
Alas, reality has complicated expectations of a return to a smooth relationship with the Gulf Arab states.
By 2013, the Middle East had become the setting for multiple vortices of violence.
The Arab Spring that began in 2011 devolved into an Arab Winter in the backdrop of an Iran- Saudi cold war.
In July 2013, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi overthrew President Mohamed Morsi, ending Egypt’s brief experiment with (an albeit flawed) democratic rule.
The Syrian uprising, which began with peaceful protests, emerged as the new frontline in the global jihad, which included rebel groups backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and the United States as well as Iran’s Quds Force.
The IS also emerged in Syria. Yemen began to fall apart again, and the Houthi rebels, with ties to Iran, took over Sana’a in 2014 and remain a threat along the Saudi border.
During this period, the Saudis have tried to coax Pakistan to join multiple blocs: first against the Syrian regime, then against Houthi rebels in Yemen, and more recently a broader “Islamic” anti-terror coalition.
Now, Pakistan may be pressed to join the Saudi-UAE axis against Qatar. Via intermediaries, Doha has been issued a 13-point set of demands by Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, including the shutdown of the Al Jazeera news network.
The 10-day ultimatum has passed, indicating that Qatar has more staying power than most observers had assumed, and this intra-GCC crisis will linger on.
Pakistan’s relations with the Persian Gulf are more complicated than ever before.
While Pakistan and the Sharif family have strong ties to Saudi Arabia, they also have a blossoming relationship with Qatar, as well as Doha’s close partner Turkey.
Pakistan is truly caught between a rock and a hard place.
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