by ALTAY ATLI
Iran President Hassan Rouhani (left) greets Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
While the Iran nuclear deal sparked optimism around the world, Turkey appears to be the one country where both the enthusiasm and expectations related to this new era with Iran are the highest.
The overall mood in Ankara is positive, and as evident in the remarks made by policy makers after the conclusion of the agreement between the P5+1 and Iran in Vienna, the deal is deemed first and foremost to be an economic opportunity of historic proportions, which will bring benefits for Turkey through increased trade, investments and energy flows.
There remain reservations about Iran’s possible intentions to increase its influence over the Middle East and establish some form of hegemony over the region’s affairs. However, for the Turkish government as well as the country’s business community, post-sanctions Iran means primarily a trading partner offering profound economic prospects.
It makes sense for Turkish policy makers to underscore the economic promises that the deal brings. In the period after the Arab uprisings with the entire Middle East sliding into sectarian conflicts, Turkey’s foreign policy towards the region has descended into incoherence and despair, which has cost the country dearly in terms of both eroding reputation and lost commercial markets.
Turkey needs to reformulate its Middle East policy, and the rational way to do so is by refraining from taking sides in sectarian divisions and playing different political actors against each other, while at the same time placing the emphasis on sustainable economic linkages over the long term.
If there is going to be a Turkish foreign policy reset in the Middle East, it will have to prioritize economic relations with neighboring countries, and the deal with Iran offers a window of opportunity in this respect because with Iraq and Syria in chaos, and relations with Egypt at an all-time low, it is Iran where the first bricks for such a new foreign policy approach can be laid.
Turkey’s keenness on economic prospects in post-deal Iran is remarkable. Several cabinet ministers have emphasized the possible positive impact of a normalized Iran on the regional economy and the direct gains that Turkey is likely to reap.
The trade volume between the two countries, which totaled $13.7 billion in 2014, is announced to be targeting $35 billion by the end of 2016. Turkey has a trade deficit with Iran, a $6 billion last year, which is related to imports of natural gas. Iran is Turkey’s second largest supplier of gas after Russia, providing 20 percent of the gas consumed within Turkey (Russia provides 57 percent).
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