by F. M. SHAKIL
As the US-Israeli war on Iran reshapes regional alignments, uneasy allies like Abu Dhabi and Islamabad are sliding into open confrontation over loyalty, leverage, and survival.
The war on Iran has not only ignited a direct confrontation between Tehran and the Washington-backed Israeli campaign, but it has also torn open quieter rivalries across West Asia. One of the clearest fault lines now runs between the UAE and Pakistan, where a year of simmering tensions has given way to open strategic divergence.
Over the past year, relations between Abu Dhabi and Islamabad have steadily frayed. But the rupture accelerated once the US–Israeli assault on Iran began, followed by a sudden Emirati demand that Pakistan repay a $3.5-billion loan dating back to 2018.
Abu Dhabi has publicly acknowledged Pakistan’s recent role in attempting to mediate between Tehran and Washington and bring about an already violated ceasefire. Yet behind closed doors, it has refused to identify the aggressors driving the conflict and the resulting global economic shock. This selective silence reflects a broader alignment with US priorities, even as it risks destabilizing its own regional partnerships.
The divergence came to a head during a strategic consultation in Riyadh on 19 March. The meeting nearly collapsed after the UAE, alongside Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, blocked Pakistan’s push to include a condemnation of Israeli aggression. Instead, Abu Dhabi advanced a far more extreme position – advocating the defeat of Iran “by any means necessary,” while avoiding any criticism of Washington or Tel Aviv.
According to Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir, writing in the Urdu-language newspaper Jhang, Emirati officials went as far as suggesting the potential use of nuclear weapons against Iran. Lebanon, Turkiye, and Pakistan pushed back forcefully, warning that any such escalation would not stop at Iran’s borders but would inevitably engulf the Persian Gulf monarchies themselves.
Only after last-minute Saudi intervention was the final communiqué amended to include language condemning Israeli aggression.
Mediation or managed pressure?
Pakistan, alongside Turkiye and Egypt, has stepped forward as part of a loose mediation track aimed at halting the war. All three states maintain ties to Washington, yet attempt to position themselves as intermediaries capable of delivering a ceasefire acceptable to Tehran.
Islamabad’s proposal outlined a two-phase plan. The first calls for an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The second envisions a broader settlement – dubbed the “Islamabad Accord” – spanning 15 to 20 days of negotiations, during which Iran would limit its nuclear program to civilian use in exchange for sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and a new regional security framework for Hormuz.
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