by AIDAN J. SIMARDONE
Trump plans to recognize Somaliland in order to bolster the west’s foothold in the Horn of Africa against Yemen and counter Chinese influence, but in doing so, risks alienating key regional allies critical for Israel’s wars in West Asia.
In a move that surprised many, US President-elect Donald Trump is set to recognize Somaliland as an independent state. This unprecedented decision, revealed by former British Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson and reported by Semafor, could dramatically reshape geopolitics in the Horn of Africa and the waterways of West Asia.
Positioned near the Arabian Peninsula, Somaliland’s recognition would give the west a new strategic foothold in its war against Yemen, which has since October 2023 blockaded ships heading to Israel. However, this move risks straining US relations with key regional allies like Egypt and Turkiye, both of whom maintain strong ties with Somalia.
A rising country in the region
Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but remains unrecognized by any sovereign state. Despite this, the region has carved out a distinct identity. Home to a third of Somalia’s population, Somaliland is roughly the size of Florida and has maintained relative stability, unlike its war-torn neighbor.
While clashes in its eastern regions have intensified since 2023, the bulk of Somaliland remains peaceful. Strategically located near the Gulf of Aden, it commands a crucial maritime corridor for vessels heading to the Suez Canal and Yemen.
Since the onset of the 2014 Yemen War, the UAE has sought partners in the Horn of Africa against the Ansarallah-dominated government in Sanaa. In 2016, the UAE signed a $442 million deal to build a port in the Somaliland city of Berbera, which is only 260 kilometers away from the Yemeni port city of Aden.
A year later, the port was expanded to include a naval and airbase and, since 2018, has been used to strike inside Yemen. The military base continues to expand, with hangars under construction for more planes.
Possible normalization with, and recognition of Israel
The UAE is now reportedly working on securing a deal between Somaliland and Israel. Interested in securing a foothold near the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, in 2010 Israel became one of only a few countries to establish diplomatic relations with Somaliland, albeit without formal recognition.
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