by SAAHIL JAYAWANT
As Indonesia’s non-alignment comes under increasing pressure from U.S.-China competition, where will Prabowo lean?
Indonesia is on the rise. As ASEAN’s largest country and economy, with a growing domestic consumer market and a large supply of natural resources, its economic potential is clear. Sitting in the South China Sea surrounded by its fellow ASEAN nations and encircled by India, China, Japan, and Australia, it also commands great geopolitical importance. It is no wonder that over 30 ministers and world leaders attended President Prabowo Subianto’s recent inauguration.
An ex-military general and oligarch, Prabowo is taking the reins on foreign policy, appointing his long-time follower Sugiono as foreign minister. This is not surprising. With his foreign education at The American School in London and knowledge of several languages, Prabowo is a natural statesman. As president-elect, he has already made visits to China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, the Middle East, Europe and Australia, displaying a more active, centralized and personalized approach to foreign policy than his predecessor, Joko Widodo. But the difference in personality has not meant a difference in policy. Prabowo has reaffirmed Indonesia’s non-alignment stance and has committed himself to the same “good-neighbour foreign policy” as Widodo did.
However, Indonesia’s neutrality is under pressure as the competition between the United States and China intensifies and the world becomes more fragmented. The United States and its allies in Asia, notably the Philippines and Japan, expect Prabowo’s support in resisting China’s aggression in the South China Sea, where China continues incursions into Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone. Global conflicts are also testing Indonesia’s non-alignment. The wedge between the pro-Palestinian Indonesia and the pro-Israeli United States over the war in Gaza has grown. There is clear cooperation between China, Russia, and North Korea in opposing the United States and NATO in Ukraine. Prabowo personally felt this divide when his plan for ending the war in Ukraine was denounced as “Russian-made” by Ukrainian and European officials. Although he will not formally end the policy of non-alignment, Prabowo is aware that his ability to simultaneously maintain ties with the United States, China and their respective allies is at risk. If push comes to shove, which way will he lean?
A Fragile Friendship: Prabowo and the U.S.
Prabowo has a strained relationship with the United States. Despite studying there in his youth, he was banned from entering the United States until he became defense minister over his role in the invasion and occupation of East Timor during the Suharto regime. As dictator Suharto’s son-in-law, he ran the Kopassus, Indonesia’s special forces, which allegedly committed human rights abuses against activists in East Timor and Papua.
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