Why Modi’s shifting India away from US toward China

by BHIM BHURTEL

Indian leader Narendra Modi with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, October 23, 2024. IMAGE/ X @narendramodi

Indian leader eases border tensions with China for more economic engagement, acknowledgement his strategic dalliance with US has failed

India and China have recently agreed to disengage from their prolonged border standoff in the western sector of the India-China Himalayan border on the sidelines of 16th BRICS summit. Tensions have simmered since June 15, 2020, after 20 Indian and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed in a high-mountain clash.

China’s main grievance with India emerged after Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power and began strengthening ties with the United States. India started signing agreements that effectively designated it as a US partner and ally in South Asia.

China perceived this as part of Washington’s broader “China containment policy,” which was central to former President Barack Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy during his second term. In response, China sought to pressure India, aiming to keep it from becoming too closely aligned with the US.

On August 29, 2016, India signed an adapted version of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) with the US. In response, China ramped up pressure on India, particularly at the Doklam tri-junction, where the borders of Bhutan, China and India converge.

In an effort to ease tensions, India’s then-foreign secretary, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, visited Beijing and assured his Chinese counterparts that India was committed to resolving differences through a high-level mechanism.

This led to the first informal summit between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Wuhan, China, on April 27–28, 2018, where both leaders  discussed and agreed on various issues to manage their differences.

Despite Modi’s assurances to China, India went ahead and signed another foundational agreement with the US — the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) — on September 6, 2018, on the sidelines of the inaugural 2+2 dialogue between the two countries.

On October 11-12, 2019, the second informal summit between Modi and Xi took place in Mahabalipuram, Tamil Nadu. The summit, however, appeared to be a failure, likely due to Modi’s decision to align more closely with the US by agreeing to a third foundational agreement. It’s possible that Modi bluntly responded to Xi of India’s intention to formalize its partnership with the US during their discussions.

This assumption is supported by Xi’s subsequent statement during an official visit to Kathmandu, Nepal, directly after the Mahabalipuram summit. There, Xi warned that “anyone attempting to split China in any part of the country will end in crushed bodies and shattered bones,” which could have been interpreted as a veiled response to India’s growing ties with the US.

Following the deadly clashes in Galwan on June 15, 2020, the Indian media—often referred to as “Godi media” for its pro-Modi stance—launched an intense anti-China propaganda campaign. Despite China’s concerns and Modi’s earlier assurances to Xi at the Wuhan summit, India continued to strengthen its ties with the US.

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