by JORGE ELBAUM
On June 2, elections were held in Mexico, the second most populous State in Latin America and the Caribbean, with around 130 million inhabitants. Another 11 million Mexicans live in the United States. Of those, around 98 million were eligible to choose between three candidates: Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (continuator of the legacy of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO); the representative of the conservative right-wing alliance, Xóchitl Gálvez; and the social democrat Jorge Álvarez Máynez, of the Movimiento Ciudadano party. The different polls predicted an overwhelming triumph of Sheinbaum, the former Head of Government of Mexico City.
The causes of this expected triumph of the ruling party were related to AMLO’s success in his fight against poverty. According to indicators shared by local and international agencies, nine million Mexicans have been lifted out of poverty due to income improvements motivated by two factors: the increase in pensions and the sustained growth of salaries, which improved 3.3 percent with respect to inflation during his six-year term. The Gross Domestic Product grew 5.7 percent in 2021, after the pandemic, 3.9 in 2022 and 3.2 in 2023, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). The current year’s increase is expected to reach 2.8 percent.
Conservative sectors were at war against AMLO and against Sheinbaum, and that offensive had/has foreign partners. The main one resides in the United States, for whom the outgoing government was a nightmare because it had broken the agreements that the narco-oligarchy of the PRI and the PAN had established with the transnationals. Three of the dimensions through which the interference from the north was instituted were: illegal arms trafficking, migratory processes and drug trafficking.
Last January, AMLO succeeded in filing a lawsuit against US arms manufacturers that were the driving force behind the smuggling of rifles for the benefit of drug trafficking cartels. In 2021, AMLO’s government initiated legal action in US courts for ’negligent and unlawful business practices that facilitate illegal arms trafficking, generating enormous human and material damage.’ The lawsuit was filed against Smith & Wesson, Beretta, Glock and Colt, among others. According to the Mexican government’s statement, illegal commercialization involved the entry of 342,000 to 597,000 weapons each year. When Mexico made the original presentation in the US courts, its then Foreign Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, advanced that his country would seek compensation of at least 10 billion dollars, linking illegal arms trafficking to the number of homicides, which in 2020 reached 36,579 murders.
Regarding the migration issue, between 2018 and 2023 there had been the entry of 1.2 million Mexicans to the United States, 58 percent more, on average, than previous years. The vast majority of those migrating north were hired at pauper wages and contributed exponentially to the exploitation of the labor force, reducing the so-called ’labor cost’ of employers: while Washington ranted against immigration, employers extended the exaction of value to Latino workers. Nearly 79 percent of migrants were male and half of them were between 15 and 29 years old.
Drug trafficking was another of the dimensions that appeared thematized in the elections. The State Department insisted on making visible the (foreign) supply that had the Mexican cartels responsible for border trafficking. But it refused to make visible the commercialization within the United States, linked to the local mafias that are articulated with the laundering of assets in the financial lairs controlled by Wall Street. To face part of these scourges, AMLO’s government had decided to apply measures against the so-called FINTECH, platform companies used by cartels to launder assets.
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