Indonesia may have just elected a strongman

by ELLEN LOANES

Indonesians have chosen Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo as their next president, despite his history as a general credibly accused of human rights abuses and war crimes and concerns he could hasten democratic erosion during his tenure.

Prabowo, who uses his first name, is closely aligned with outgoing President Joko Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi, and currently serves as Indonesia’s defense minister. Preliminary results from Wednesday’s polls have Prabowo leading over the other two candidates, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan, the former governors of Central Java and Jakarta respectively.

Though Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, generally has strong voter mobilization, the country’s democratic institutions aren’t exactly robust. There has been democratic backsliding over the past decade under Jokowi, although he has been an extremely popular president. Jokowi essentially anointed Prabowo as his successor, and given Prabowo’s violent history, there are concerns that backsliding will only grow worse under the new administration.

“Indonesians are generally proud of their democratic politics and enjoy their elections, but the country has seen a sustained backsliding of its democratic character with the rising intolerance against the minorities, increasing Shariatization,” or the promotion of Sharia law, “in the provinces, political favoritism, and growing influence of the military in the national politics,” Vibhanshu Shekhar, adjunct professorial lecturer in political science at American University, told Vox via email.

Indonesia is a young democracy; it has been only 25 years since former dictator Suharto was overthrown. It’s often seen, at least from a Western perspective, as an encouraging example of democratic transition and growth in a region where democracy has sometimes struggled to take hold. But Indonesia’s 2024 elections merit a closer look — and a close eye on Prabowo’s policies as he takes office.

Who is Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s president-elect?

Jokowi is constitutionally prohibited from seeking a third term, but Prabowo has promised to continue his policies, including continued nonalignment in the great power showdown between the US and China and building a new capital city, Nusantara.

That Jokowi, an essentially progressive leader who ran against Prabowo in two previous elections, tacitly endorsed Prabowo as his successor is surprising given that they don’t belong to the same political party. Jokowi’s party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) put forward Ganjar Pranowo as its candidate, who hoped to further Jokowi’s “progressive, pluralist, developmentalist vision for Indonesian democracy,” as Thomas Pepinsky wrote for Brookings in January.

Jokowi and Prabowo were once bitter rivals. The former general lost the presidency to Jokowi twice, in 2014 and 2019, and leveled venomous attacks against the popular president. After Prabowo refused to concede the 2019 election, Jokowi brought Prabowo into his government as the defense minister. Incorporating political rivals into one’s government is not an uncommon practice in Indonesian politics. It’s partly a function of the importance of social cohesion in the country, according to Parker Novak, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, but it also helps leaders “neutralize political opponents and progressively build a power base,” he told Vox.

Prabowo has a reputation for advancing populist ideologies — including supporting extremist Islamist elements and disparaging minorities like ethnic Chinese and Christians. He also repeatedly suggested that Indonesia should have a strongman ruler; that is, himself.

However, he has become a key Jokowi ally who brought the president’s 36-year-old son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to be his running mate despite Gibran being too young to run. In an incident that raised concerns among pro-democracy activists, Jokowi faced allegations that he pressured the Constitutional Court to make an exception to the age requirement for his son.

In his past campaigns, Prabowo has asserted his military bona fides; a former special forces soldier, he rose through the ranks after marrying former dictator Suharto’s daughter. As a general, he allegedly participated in massacres in East Timor; the kidnapping and “disappearing” of democracy activists; the targeting of ethnic Chinese Indonesians in campaigns of murder, arson, and rape; and the killings of civilians in the provinces of Aceh and West Papua.

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