Turkey elections: Three winners and three losers

by ALEX MACDONALD

“A supporter of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds a poster which reads ‘We Love You Chief’ outside the AKP headquarters after polls closed in Turkey’s presidental and parliamentary elections in Ankara, 15 May 2023” IMAGE/AFP

A good night for nationalists and religious conservatives, a bad night for the opposition alliance

As bleary eyed observers survey the aftermath of Turkey‘s tense parliamentary and presidential elections, a picture has begun to form of the political wreckage left in its wake.

Predicted breakthroughs for the opposition failed to materialise, while other little-discussed candidates and parties managed to make surprise gains and possibly shape how the second round run-off in the presidential elections could form in the coming weeks.

Although it’s perhaps too early to make a full assessment, anxiety over the opposition Nation Alliance’s tacit electoral pact with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) as well as mounting anger at Syrian refugees appears to have given the nationalist vote a boost.

And despite hopes that a big tent alliance could bring together a bigger voter coalition, the opposition failed to break through and many of the smaller parties predicted votes sank without a trace.

With all that in mind, and with another round of presidential voting still to come, Middle East Eye takes a look at the winners and losers from Sunday evening’s elections:

Winners:

Sinan Ogan

The MHP-turned-Iyi-Party-turned-independent candidate has been granted the title of “kingmaker” in the wake of Sunday’s elections.

By scooping up just over five percent of the presidential vote, he stands to be the key figure in the second round of voting.

A right-wing nationalist, Ogan’s primary concerns have been the expulsion of Syrians from Turkey and clamping down on the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP).

In interviews conducted in the wake of the elections, he has indicated that any decision to endorse either Kemal Kilicdaroglu, of the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), or incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), will be based on who is more likely to address these issues.

New Welfare Party

Founded by the son of Turkey’s most prominent Islamist pre-AKP, Necmettin Erbakan, the New Welfare Party ran as part of the AKP-led People’s Alliance and, advocating a more full-throated religious conservative message, have managed to grab five parliamentary seats.

The party has been vocal in its opposition to LGBTQ+ rights and advocates for the overturning of Turkey’s Law No. 6284 to Protect Family and Prevent Violence Against Women.

Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)

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