by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
The US has voiced willingness to end support for Iran’s protest movement if Tehran stops selling drones to Moscow and makes concessions on its nuclear program.
There is a long history of western powers fuelling public unrest in Iran, even pre-dating the establishment of the Islamic Republic. But what makes the on-going protests since mid-September unique is that Washington is also signalling interest in reaching an accommodation with Tehran under certain conditions.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian stated explicitly on 5 December that the US and a number of other western countries have incited riots, because “one of the US’ objectives was to force Iran to make big concessions at the negotiating table” for the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal.
Amir-Abdollahian’s remark followed some megaphone diplomacy by US special envoy on Iran Rob Malley several days earlier. Speaking at a conference in Rome, Malley made the sensational disclosure that Washington is currently more focused on Tehran’s decision to arm Russia in Ukraine and the repression of its internal protests than on talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal:
“The more Iran represses, the more there will be sanctions; the more there are sanctions, the more Iran feels isolated. The more isolated they feel, the more they turn to Russia; the more they turn to Russia, the more sanctions there will be; the more the climate deteriorates, the less likely there will be nuclear diplomacy.”
“So it is true right now the vicious cycles are all self-reinforcing. The repression of the protests and Iran’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine is where our focus is because that is where things are happening, and where we want to make a difference,” he added.
Why the US supports the protestors
In essence, Malley admitted that the Biden Administration is a stakeholder in the ongoing protests in Iran.
Importantly, he also hinted that although Tehran has taken a series of fateful decisions that make a full revival of the nuclear deal and a lifting of some economic sanctions a political impossibility for now, the door to diplomacy is not shut if Iran’s leadership changed course on relations with Russia.
In further remarks to Bloomberg the following day, Malley said that “Right now we can make a difference in trying to deter and disrupt the provision of weapons to Russia and trying to support the fundamental aspirations of the Iranian people.”
As he put it, Washington now aims to “disrupt, delay, deter and sanction” Iran’s weapon deliveries to Russia, as any supplies of missiles or assistance in the construction of military production facilities in Russia “would be crossing new lines.”
Malley has directly linked the US approach toward Iran’s protests with Tehran’s foreign and security policies with Moscow and indirect involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. While the protests in Iran began in mid-September, the first signs that the US intelligence was focusing on Iran-Russia military ties appeared somewhat earlier.
Arming Russia in Ukraine
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