by JOHN KRIKKE
Western political leaders have shown themselves to be incompetent and self-absorbed, but they are not suicidal
In 2012, the American political scientist Graham T Allison argued that the US and China were on a collision course for war. Allison claimed that fear of China had led the US to fall into the “Thucydides trap.”
Allison was referring to the Greek historian Thucydides, who chronicled the war between Sparta and Athens. Thucydides famously said: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
Allison based his somber prediction on a study of similar transitions in history. Of 16 cases of a rising power challenging a ruling power, 12 ended in war, among them the rise and fall of the Spanish, French, and British empires.
The Thucydides-trap theory is not without its critics. Columbia University’s Richard Hanania argues that the theory doesn’t apply to the rivalry between the US and China because China’s ambitions are limited mostly to dealing with domestic issues.
Other scholars, among them Arthur Waldron and Ian Buruma, have argued that China is still far too weak for such a conflict, pointing to China’s “economic vulnerabilities,” its aging population, and exodus of Chinese people out of China.
Encirclement
The latter opinion seems oddly out of touch with reality. The US makes no secret of the fact that it wants to contain China and slow its rise as a global power. It sanctioned Huawei, one of China’s most important companies, and is blocking Chinese access to its latest chip technology.
Moreover, the US has permanently stationed an armada of battleships in the South China Sea that is supported by US military bases in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, all within striking distance of the Chinese mainland.
The US also maintains a military presence in Thailand and several countries in Central Asia bordering China, while the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has expanded eastward to several countries bordering Russia.
A look at the map explains why Russia and China have concluded that attempts to integrate Ukraine into NATO are the next step in an attempt to encircle China fully. Only the Russian Federation stands in the way of the Western alliance expanding its military footprint to the Chinese border.
Last year, the US openly stated its aim of bankrupting the Russian economy with “sanctions from hell,” and removing President Vladimir Putin from power, presumably with the aim of replacing him with a Yeltsin-like pro-Western leader.
Hardline anti-Russian groups in Washington that are influential in the American foreign-policy establishment would like to go a step further: create enough turmoil to lead to the disintegration of the Russian Federation.
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