by JORG NOWAK
The October 2 Brazilian presidential election campaign is now in its final stage. It is no doubt one of the most globally significant elections this year. Former moderate-left president Lula Inácio da Silva of the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) is leading in the opinion polls with between 40 and 45 percent support in the first round of elections. The extreme right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) trails Lula with 30 to 35 percent.
Regarding a possible second round, should any candidate not win a majority, Lula leads Bolsonaro by a margin of 15 percent. While many observers consider the election already decided, others are expecting surprises. The question remains whether Bolsonaro will accept defeat at the ballot box. Expectations that Bolsonaro would attempt a coup during a rally on Brazil’s Independence Day on September 7 turned out to be unfounded.
Election Rallies and Televised Debates
In fact, Independence Day celebrations occurred without any disturbances. Bolsonaro rallied tens of thousands in Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, and São Paulo, yet analysis of aerial photographs revealed participation was somewhat lower than Bolsonaro’s rally the previous year, when he called for the abolition of the Supreme Court and Congress.
While in 2021 the number of Bolsonaro’s supporters on the streets was seen as a disappointment, this year’s lower numbers appear to be a success because there have not been any larger mobilizations by the Left for months, in contrast to the number of large rallies by the Left last year.
Bolsonaro successfully managed to blend the celebrations for the 200th anniversary of Brazil’s independence with his election campaign. Several parties went to court to try to prevent the mixing of public celebrations and electoral campaigning, but it was improbable that courts would have impeded Bolsonaro from such campaigning. Any interference by the courts with campaigning at this point would support his long-standing claim that the elections are rigged against him.
On the other hand, the presidents of the Senate, the Parliament and the Supreme Court did not join the celebrations, and the official celebration in Parliament on September 8 was boycotted by Bolsonaro. This demonstrates his isolation, which even extends to the president of Parliament, Artur Lira, usually a faithful supporter of the President.
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