by CHEN FENG
China will send small units to infiltrate Taiwan and use its naval and air superiority to block the US military
Chinese and foreign media have recently reported that the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a heavyweight think tank in the United States, has conducted scenario planning looking toward war in the Taiwan Strait.
Participants included former senior military officers, senior government military and political experts and fellows from think tanks such as the RAND Corporation and the Center for New American Security (CNAS).
The scenario planning had been scheduled for a long time. It caught a lot of attention as it happened after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan.
The CSIS assumed a war will break out in the Taiwan Strait in 2026. Such an estimation could be based on the prediction of the former commander of the US Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson, who said in his testimony before Congress that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would be ready to attack Taiwan in 2027.
It assumed that the attack would consist of six to eight rounds, each of them lasting three to four days. In total, it would last for three to four weeks.
The scenario planning indicated that in most (but not all) scenarios, the Taiwan military would not fall completely, but Taiwan’s economy and infrastructure would be basically destroyed.
It said the US military in the Western Pacific would pay a heavy price while the PLA would control one-third to half of Taiwan Island. Then the PLA would not be able to maintain its supply but the US military’s supply would continue.
The scenario planning will run until September, with a final report scheduled for December. So far, 18 of the 22 rounds of possible attacks have been carried out.
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