by B. R. GOWANI
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange who took refuge in Ecuadorian embassy in London, England, had asked for an asylum, which he was granted on 16 August. In the above picture, he is seen making a statement from the embassy window on 19 August. PHOTO/Democracy Now
The Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his vice presidential candidate has not given any boost to his campaign. And so the slight edge Obama had over him is still there. It’s kind of a stalemate. Besides, campaign money is not a problem for either candidate.
On the other hand, with less than two and a half months left for the elections, and the US economy not showing much improvement, President Barack Obama must be little worried too.
In this situation, there is one thing which sometimes work and is known as the October Surprise, that is, some announcement or event which has the potential to influence the result of the presidential election.
Mitt Romney
On the foreign policy and war fronts, Romney can’t accuse Obama of playing weak because of Obama’s bloodier than thou approach. However, Romney may play the Iran card to not only enhance his own rating but to also please his friend, Israeli President Binyamin Netanyahu, and the Israel Lobby in the US.
Some Israeli leaders are hell bent on going to war with Iran. A “senior Israeli official” recently said: “If we do not act, it’s almost certain that Iran will go nuclear. If we do act, there’s a good chance that Iran will not go nuclear for a long while.” It is widely believed that the official talking to Haaretz newspaper was Defense Minister Ehud Barak. As part of a preparedness for Iranian missile retaliation (which Israel expects when it strikes the Iranian nuclear facilities), booths have been set up to distribute gas masks to Israelis, along with other precautions.
The only thing Romney has to do, with the help of the Israel Lobby, is to go after Obama with charges of ignoring Israel’s security. This can be followed by Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Obama wants to avoid any conflict with Iran because he is well aware that Iran is a hard nut to chew. But let’s assume that he is pushed into a war with Iran. Who will benefit, Romney or Obama? It can go either way. If the US succeeds in inflicting heavy damage on Iran before November 6 then he’ll be a hero. But if US suffers casualties and/or Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz raising the price of oil, then it will be a bad news for Obama. Remember President Jimmy Carter’s Operation Eagle Claw?
Barack Obama
One non-violent card Obama has is Romney’s money in Swiss Banks. Even Newt Gingrich, one of Romney’s Republican opponents during the primary season, reminded him in these words: “I don’t know of any American president who has had a Swiss bank account.” Nicholas Shaxson, in his article, “Where the Money Lives“, in the Vanity Fair reminds us that Romney has “interests in such tax havens as Bermuda and the Cayman Islands.” Romney has also refused to show his tax returns for more than two years. He has shown the 2010 tax returns and is going to produce the 2011 returns in October. (And that should not be confused with the October Surprise.)
If the Democrats or the reporters could provide some solid proof of Romney’s foreign accounts, then Romney will be in trouble.
However, if Obama’s polling numbers take a downward slide and nothing concrete comes up about the Swiss money, Obama will resort to some kind of a military operation. One is Syria. Just this week, Obama warned President Bashar al Assad to not use chemical weapons in the current violent power struggle going in Syria. To wage a war against Syria, the US just has to send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the United Nations Security Council with some “proof” of Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons like Colin Powell did in 2003 about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction–which was a total lie.
Another fresh target for Obama can be Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa for his bold decision to grant asylum to Julian Assange. Correa’s decision has the support of UNASUR (Union of South American Nations) and ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America) Assange’s mother in Australia said: “What the US wants, the US gets from its allies, regardless of if it’s legal or if it’s ethical or in breach of human or legal rights.” On the other hand, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard is not going to do anything for Assange, who is Australian.
Britain has threatened to invade the Ecuadorin embassy in London where Assange is currently residing. In Ecuadorian capital Quito, the Foreign Minister Ricardo Patino told the press conference: “Today we have received from the United Kingdom an explicit threat in writing that they could assault our embassy in London if Ecuador does not hand over Julian Assange.” Correa’s response to the threat was: “They haven’t found out that the Americas are free and sovereign and that we don’t accept meddling and colonialism of any kind.”
(The news media in Britain should have been on Assange’s side because it involves not only the freedom of expression but also his efforts to expose the US Empire and many small and big dictators. But that’s not the case. Forget the right wing Daily Mail, even the liberal Guardian is not supportive.)
Ecuador has Columbia on the north, Peru on the west and south, and the Atlantic Ocean on the west. Columbia receives huge sums of aid from the US which fights the war on drugs in Columbia. All the oceans in the world are US-friendly. If the US decides to create trouble in Ecuador, Columbia and the Atlantic Ocean are the places it will use.
The US “national security” is a very sensitive creature and is allergic to even minor imagined discomfort. The US has to just create an excuse and some kind of covert or overt activity can happen in Ecuador.
B. R. Gowani can be reached at brgowani@hotmail.com