by DAVID HEARST
A tectonic shift is taking place in the Arab world. It has nothing to do with the temporary and patchable squabbles of princes, imperial spoils, or jostling alliances of proxies.
Nor has it any relevance to the two traditional bugbears of the Sunni Arab ruler: Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood.
It has not been triggered by a trader immolating himself after having his food carts confiscated by officials in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia. No mass demonstrations have taken place in Cairo calling for the downfall of a dictator.
And yet, this shift could have as wide repercussions as the Arab Spring once had, 15 years ago.
What is commonly referred to in the Middle East as the “real” nations of the Arab world – meaning those countries with significant populations – have woken up to what has been happening all around them.
Saudi Arabia and Algeria, principally, and Egypt potentially have realised that a plan to dominate and control the key chokepoints of the region by Israel (explicitly) and the United Arab Emirates (implicitly) is a threat to their national interests.
The Israeli-Emirati plan is simple: fragment once-formidable Arab states, control key trade routes like the Bab al-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, plant military bases all around the region, and you will ensure lucrative military and financial control for the rest of the century.
Policy of fragmentation
In Israel, this plan was explicit. It’s the formula Tel Aviv is trying in Syria, with their creation of a protectorate of the Druze in southern Syria, and attempts to do the same to Kurdish areas in the north. This strategy is open and declared.
Israel doesn’t want a united Syria. But fragmentation is also the policy inherent in Tel Aviv’s recognition of Somaliland, which offers the Israeli military a foothold in the Horn of Africa.
For Abu Dhabi, fragmentation had long been been set in motion all over the Arab world.
It had other targets, principally political Islam. But fragmentation was its policy in Libya, where the UAE supported General Khalifa Haftar against the Government of National Accord in Tripoli.
The blinkers had fallen from Saudi eyes. They felt that they were being surrounded, and if they did not act now, the kingdom itself could be the next target
It was the same policy in Sudan, where the Emiratis funded and armed the Rapid Support Forces and their commander, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), who is under US Treasury sanctions. Of course they deny it, but the Sudanese civil war would not be happening without massive Emirati involvement.
MEE for more