JPMORGANCHASE CENTER FOR GEOPOLITICS
Expect an imperfect deal by end of Q2
As Europe runs low on weapons, Ukraine on fighters, the U.S. on patience, and transatlantic unity frays, President Zelenskyy will likely be forced to accept a negotiated settlement with Russia sometime this year that freezes the fighting but stops short of a comprehensive peace agreement. Putin’s losses are also far from sustainable. At its current rate of gain, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about…118 years. So Putin will aim to cut a deal that is favorable to his overall goal to eventually control Kyiv. 2025 was always going to be the year of negotiation, and the endgame is here.
But will it last? The durability of any settlement will depend on: (1) how satisfied President Putin is with Ukrainian and Western concessions (did he get enough of what he wanted?). Both sides need a deal they can defend politically. And (2) the strength of the security promises underwriting it (are they sufficient to deter further aggression and allow Ukraine to rebuild with confidence?). These are in direct tension; the weaker the security promises, the more concessions Ukraine will have to swallow—neutrality, demilitarization, disarmament, territory, etc.—or risk a return to fighting.
Generally, we see 4 possible outcomes, each with parallels to other countries today:
Odds: 15% Best case – “South Korea”
President Zelenskyy will get neither NATO membership nor the full restoration of Ukraine’s territory. However, if he can secure an in-country European tripwire force backstopped by an American security promise on assistance and intelligence support, then the 80 percent of Ukraine still under Kyiv’s control will be set on a much more stable, prosperous, and
democratic trajectory. The West’s decision to leverage the approximately $300 billion it has frozen in Russian sovereign assets would also get reconstruction in Ukraine off to a good start.
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