Volcanoes, Weather and Computer Models (Plus Marijuana and Psychosis)

by ALEXANDER COCKBURN

“Lightning at the Eyjafjallajökull volcano branches off in many directions.” PHOTO/Marco Fulle, Barcroft/Fame Pictures. National Geographic.

Scarcely a week goes by without some scaremongering headline about climate change, premised on apocalyptic conclusions drawn from some computer-generated model. Modeling lies at the heart of the whole vast climate-change industry, one sparked by the big government–backed computer modeling centers in the US and UK. To understand the frail connection between these models and the realities of world climate today and tomorrow, consider the crisis in world travel and aviation prompted by the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland.

The current eruptions began on March 20; the plume of ash from the larger, ongoing eruptions that began on April 14 led to systematic grounding of international and local European flights, losing airlines billions in revenues and paralyzing the travel industry.

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