by MAHIR ALI
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani PHOTO/Associate Press
Tehran, like everyone else, was caught on the hop, and evidently remains uncertain about the gravity of the threat it faces.
In the absence of any obvious trigger, the eruption in Iran as 2017 drew to a close took everyone by surprise, providing an unexpected signpost for the New Year. Given that the first protest occurred in Mashhad, a city whose political and clerical elite is implacably hostile to President Hassan Rouhani’s administration, it is fairly probable that the initial demonstration was instigated by hardliners as part of the ongoing tussle between conservatives and reformists.
If so, the attempt backfired spectacularly as slogans proclaiming “Death to Rouhani”, ostensibly because of his government’s economic failures, were joined before long by shouts of “Death to the dictator” — a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — and the airing of a broader array of grievances.
The protests spread rapidly across the country, but have thus far remained relatively small, with slogans reportedly ranging from wholesale denunciations of the clerical order and the expending of state resources on strategic initiatives in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza, to scattered calls for reinstating the monarchy.
In contrast to the so-called Green movement mobilisations of 2009, which were much larger but restricted mainly to urban centres, this time the marchers have tended to be working class rather than middle class. The regime’s initial response has also been rather less brutal than it was under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, although Rouhani’s assurance that peaceful protests were perfectly legitimate has been accompanied by dire warnings from the interior minister as well as the dreaded revolutionary guard. A dozen deaths had been officially acknowledged by the start of the week, amid reports of hundreds of arrests.
Tehran, like everyone else, was caught on the hop, and evidently remains uncertain about the gravity of the threat it faces. Its reaction will largely depend on whether the seemingly leaderless and somewhat rudderless protests grow in size and intensity, or peter out within the next few days.
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