By Bob van der Zwaan and Tom Sauer
Often, it seems as though unimportant policy issues are constantly debated, while important ones are forgotten. For those decision makers who want to maintain the status quo, the advantage of the latter situation is the absence of any pressure for policy change. U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe are a perfect example. Despite the end of the Cold War about two decades ago, approximately 200 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons quietly remain on European soil. Whether they retain any relevance in the twenty-first century is debatable to say the least.
The U.S. tactical nuclear weapons left in Europe–all gravity bombs for delivery by U.S. or NATO aircraft–are deployed in five NATO countries: Belgium (20 bombs at Kleine Brogel Air Base), Germany (20 bombs at Büchel Air Base), Italy (50 bombs at Aviano Air Base), the Netherlands (20 bombs at Volkel Air Base), and Turkey (90 bombs at Incirlik Air Base). During the Cold War, NATO deployed them to deter the perceived conventional superiority of the Warsaw Pact nations. The thinking at the time was that the threat of a smaller provocation escalating into U.S.-Soviet mutually assured destruction would deter the Soviets from initiating a conflict in Europe–for example, by invading a NATO state. Conventional wisdom back then also stated that without the U.S. nuclear umbrella, Washington’s European allies would set about acquiring nuclear weapons themselves.
Today, the political climate is starkly different. NATO currently includes every Central European country plus the three Baltic states that previously were part of the Warsaw Pact. Furthermore, Russia is now a strategic NATO partner–at least officially. Additionally, Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are committed non-nuclear weapon states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), with little interest in building nuclear programs of their own. The same applies for Turkey–more or less. (Its case is a bit more complicated because some experts claim that Turkish hard-liners might push for a domestic nuclear arsenal if Iran develops a nuclear weapons capability; that said, the hard-line position probably won’t be change by the absence, or the presence for that matter, of U.S. nuclear weapons.)
Thus, there seems to be little justification for keeping U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe. (The United States is currently the only nuclear power that has short-range tactical nuclear weapons deployed in other nations.) If anything, continuing this practice could increase the world’s nuclear dangers. For instance, it might inspire nuclear weapon states such as Russia, China, India, Israel, and Pakistan to deploy their weapons in partner countries.
Some other reasons why U.S. nuclear weapons should be removed from Europe: