by MARIUS SCHATTNER
Sidelining President Obama, the US Congress has invited Binyamin Netanyahu to speak on 3 March, helping his chance of re-election. But he may not win.
Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu may have overreached himself. His majority, however ramshackle, was large enough to keep him in power until 2017 but he has taken a big gamble in calling an election for 17 March. Even if he is re-elected, it will be at the head of a narrow coalition of the ultra-orthodox and ultra-nationalist, without the centrist ministers who have helped reassure the outside world.
The best he can expect is that he will become a hostage (willing or not) to the most hardline on the right. In those circumstances, he will head a government that the rest of the world will regard as unacceptable and will face serious difficulties at home. If he loses, Israel will be governed by a coalition that will include the Labour Party and the centre-right. This would have seemed improbable a few months ago, but it cannot be ruled out, though the right is still favourite to win.
There is also the possibility of a tie forcing both blocs to paper over their differences and form a government of national unity, which would lead to stasis; there would be no change of Israel’s political course despite Netanyahu’s personal defeat.
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