by GIORGIO CAFIERO
Al-Qaeda’s power has waned in Mali, but unresolved ethnic conflicts still threaten the country after 16 months of civil war, a military coup, and French military intervention.
Now that Mali has held its first election following the state’s near disintegration—a 16-month period marked by a fierce rebel offensive, a military coup, and a French military intervention—the prospects for peaceful reunification are on the minds of many.
A high voter turnout in the capital city of Bamako underscored the average Malian’s eagerness for a return to democracy, and the absence of jihadist-sponsored attacks on voters justifies cautious optimism about improved security. The Tuareg question, however, remains unresolved. If Bamako’s efforts to make peace with this long-rebellious minority group prove futile, expectations about national reconciliation and long-term stability in Mali must be dimmed.
The Spiral
During late 2011, a Tuareg uprising erupted in northern Mali. The main armed group—the Movement for the National Liberation of Azawad (MNLA)—partnered with Islamist militants to expel Mali’s weak military from the northern two-thirds of the country. They were bolstered by an influx of arms smuggled over from Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi’s regime was crumbling under pressure from a NATO-backed rebellion.
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