by FLORIAN KOHLBACHER
Japan’s population began to shrink in 2005, and it is also ageing: by 2010, 23% of Japanese were over 65 and 43% over 50, the highest ratios in the world. This may lead to a labour and skills shortage, and shrink the overall domestic market, but it also offers growth prospects for what in Japan is called the “silver market”.
By 2025, 33% of the Japanese population is expected to be 65 or older. The age structure will move further and further away from the classic pyramid shape, and closer to a kite shape. The number of senior citizens will grow, while the population will fall to 95 million in 2050, from just under 127 million in 2000, owing to the low birthrate.
Since 2005 this decline has been accompanied by a fall in the labour force. If nothing is done to increase the working-age population, it will decline sharply. The consensus in Japan is that more of the old should work, and more women: only 71.6% of Japanese women aged 25-54 work, compared with 75.2% in the US, 81.3% in Germany and 83.8% in France. But it could take time to change attitudes to gender equality, and population ageing is an immediate problem. According to a government white paper, the economically active population will fall from 66.57 million in 2006 to 42.28 million in 2050 (1).
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