by JAMSHEED K. CHOKSY and CAROL E. B. CHOKSY
Because access to oil and natural gas is a major driving factor for foreign policy, it is necessary to look strategically at groups controlling the future of supplies. Understanding the changing power balance between Sunnis and Shiites, or Shias, in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula region also offers insights into the growing unrest there over democratic rights. The religious schism between Shiites and Sunnis that emerged in the 7th century, now mixed with oil, gas, political power and military muscle, has acquired a new volatility that goes ignored at international peril.
Policymakers, the public and scholars recognize that Sunnis make up the majority of Muslims and that Shiites form a small minority. According to a Pew Research Center study in 2009, “Of the total Muslim population, 10–13 percent are Shia Muslims and 87–90 percent are Sunni Muslims.”
However, global generalization fails to focus on demographic distributions in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula. Nor does it take into account the geopolitical impact of Muslim sectarianism and the strategic implications of the Sunni-Shiite divide for access to natural resources from that energy rich region. As Saudi Arabia and its Sunni partners draw increasingly upon crude oil and natural gas resources to meet the demands of an energy-hungry world, Iran and its nearby Shiite partners hold on to similar resources not by choice but through sanctions and strife. So, in the long run, nations in the region with predominantly Shiite populations could determine who receives much-needed resources.
When official demographic distributions, from CIA World Factbook July 2012 estimates, for the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula are examined, it becomes evident Sunnis comprise 36 percent of the overall population whereas Shiites make up 60 percent. Other Muslim groups, Bahais, Christians, Jews, Zoroastrians and Hindus constitute the remaining 4 percent
Bahraini and Kuwaiti monarchies vest power in Sunni populations, augmenting their numbers by granting citizenship to Baloch and Pashtuns from Pakistan and Afghanistan while repressing the aspirations of their own Shiites. Official figures place Shiite citizenry at 65 percent of Bahrain’s population and 30 percent of Kuwait’s, although unofficial tallies by the Council on Foreign Relations and by Islamic Web suggest at least 75 percent of Bahrainis and 55 percent of Kuwaitis follow Shiism. Likewise Saudi Arabia, another Sunni monarchy, presents itself as overwhelmingly of the Wahhabi sect. Yet official Saudi demographics also under-represent that kingdom’s Shiite population, estimated by scholars at 25 percent. Qatar and the UAE too have larger numbers of Shiite citizens than officially reported.
One reason for those countries understating their Shiite populations is obvious: Retaining political power in Sunni hands. Another reason is increasingly relevant: Shiites tend to occupy oil and natural gas rich regions yet rarely share equally in the profits. A third reason has to do with global politics: The region’s Sunni leaders fear the West will pressure them into more power sharing and wealth distribution in order to ensure sociopolitical stability. Indeed scholarly tallies place the approximate total number of Sunnis at 54,702,317 and of Shiites at 102,357,949, or 33 percent and 62 percent respectively, of overall population in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula region.
Outlook for more