by ALBERTO RABILOTTA
The imperial scramble for oil is heating up, and with it the risks of war that (as has been the case of recent imperialist wars) may have unforeseeable consequences. But that is not all. As part of this imperial strategy there is a manipulation of the oil markets by transnational oil companies and financial interests, and this in the context of an economic and financial crisis that affects the industrialized countries of the west.
The World Bank foresees a recession in the European Union (EU), as a regime of severe austerity demanded by financial speculators and their servants, the IMF and the European Central Bank who control global finances, is applied in the euro zone (EZ). The 17 countries of the EZ will move in 2012 from an estimated growth of 1.8 per cent in the GDP to a contraction of 0.3 per cent. The World Bank anticipates a shock equivalent to the Great Recession of 2008. The less developed countries (LDCs) will see a growth of 1.4 per cent of their GDP, 1.3 per cent lower than anticipated.
This recession in the EZ and the low growth rates of the industrialized countries is due to the fall in aggregate demand, in other words, to the fall in income of the majority of consumers due to high unemployment, unstable jobs, the increase in taxes for working people and the accelerated fall in salaries and pensions in general. In this context the recent rise in oil prices, which are reaching the high levels of 2008, will accentuate even more the economic contraction in those countries which are already in recession and will aggravate the situation in those countries that suffer from a lower rate of economic growth, all of which will contribute to reducing growth in those areas that are in a process of development.
The impact of the costs of oil in the Euro Zone should not be underestimated. An analysis of the Bank of America Merril Lynch cited in FT Alphaville reveals the impact of changes in oil prices in the current account balances of countries in the EZ. In that zone the level of energy costs is reaching the levels of 2008, which aggravates the trade and current account deficits in the context of a serious crisis of public finances.
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