by SAUL LANDAU
How to evaluate events in Syria and what to do? Syria borders on Turkey (north), Iraq (east), the Mediterranean (west), Lebanon (south and west), Israel (Golan Heights) and Jordan (south). Unlike the “humanitarian” intervention in Libya — now edging toward chaos — outside fiddling with Syrian destiny will have great costs.
Syria’s strategic location and alliance with Iran means its internal violence could evolve from the regional to a larger stage. The West’s intervention formula, starting with a UN Security Council resolution condemning the regime, its killing of civilians and demanding President Bashar al-Assad step down, got derailed by Russian and Chinese vetoes.
The UN vote coincided with Syria’s attack on Homs, a Muslim Brotherhood stronghold like neighboring Hama, where in 1982 Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, had wiped out 10,000 (Robert Fisk, veteran Middle East correspondent says 20,000) of his armed foes. The Brotherhood had rebelled against Assad’s ruling Alawite clique (a Shiite sect).
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A doctor, married to one of the businessman, wearing a low-cut dress, confronted me. “You poll people in Damascus and Aleppo. I would bet the majority wants to keep Assad. With him women wear comfortable clothes, get education, become doctors and have rights. Those Sunni fanatics in Hama want Syria to return to earlier Centuries, strip women of rights, deport Christians and probably kill the minority Alawites. What happened in Iran would look moderate compared to what would happen here.” (Conversation while filming SYRIA: BETWEEN IRAQ AND A HARD PLACE, 2004.)
Eight years later, in January 2012, a YouGov Siraj poll showed 55% of Syrians wanted Assad to remain in power. But the majority was motivated by fear of civil war, not fondness for his regime, said the poll, funded by the Qatar Foundation. (Jonathan Steele Guardian, January 17, 2012).
Ironically, Qatar’s Emir had “just called for Arab troops to intervene” in Syria. Steele thought it was a “pity” that the poll was “ignored” by almost all western media outlets whose governments demanded Assad resign. The poll also showed the majority wanted free elections and more rights.
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