by SOKSAMPHOAS IM
Both sides accuse the other of igniting the armed hostilities but Thailand’s fraught civil-military divide is largely to blame
It has been two months since tensions between Cambodia and Thailand flared up again. This most recent escalation was sparked by the death of a Cambodian soldier during a skirmish with Thai troops on May 28, 2025, at the disputed border area between Cambodia’s Preah Vihear province and Thailand’s Ubon Ratchathani province.
The incident reignited a long-simmering border conflict, culminating in an exchange of artillery and small-arms fire on July 24, 2025. This violence, however, cannot be understood through the lens of a single battlefield event—nor can it be reduced to the widely discussed 17-minute leaked phone call on June 15 between Cambodian Senate President and former Prime Minister Hun Sen and suspended Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
Three days after the phone conversation, Hun Sen published the recording on his Facebook page, raising alarm bells across the region. Yet, to understand the significance of this latest border crisis, we must go beyond these two headline-grabbing incidents and examine the internal political dynamics of both nations – and the deep historical legacies that continue to shape bilateral relations.
A key moment in the phone call focused on the Thai military’s unilateral decision to close border crossings and maintain troops near Ta Moan temple. Hun Sen pressed for the reopening of the border and the withdrawal of Thai troops, pointing to the failed bilateral talks on June 5 and a brief 10-minute skirmish near the Emerald Triangle.
Paetongtarn, however, expressed hesitation in issuing such orders. Despite holding the national leadership position, she admitted that doing so could worsen her political situation, as she was already under pressure from nationalist factions who accused her of being soft on Cambodia – due in part to the close ties between her family and the Hun family.
While she agreed in principle to Hun Sen’s requests, her tone betrayed uncertainty. Instead, she proposed that Hun Sen reach out to Thailand’s then-Minister of Defense and now acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai.
Hun Sen rejected this suggestion outright, insisting that since the Thai side initiated the provocation, it must resolve the issue on its own. Cambodia, he assured her, would reopen its border as soon as Thailand did.
This exchange revealed more than diplomatic posturing – it exposed the fractured nature of Thailand’s political system. Paetongtarn’s inability or unwillingness to overrule military decisions laid bare the reality that her civilian government lacks authority over the Thai armed forces.
If we assume that she did attempt, between June 16 and 17, to persuade the military to withdraw and was rebuffed, then it stands to reason that a coup – or something resembling one – may already be underway.
Some observers have dismissed Hun Sen’s decision to leak the call as a cunning political move, portraying him as the “old fox” taking a stab at a weakened rival. But perhaps his intent was not to manipulate public sentiment, but to document – on record – that both he and Paetongtarn had attempted to de-escalate tensions.
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