by SEBASTIAN CONTIN TRILLO-FIGUEROA
Lacking the ability to enforce its interests, Europe mustn’t keep subsidizing US arms makers while alienating Chinese markets
In the opening moves of Trump’s second presidency, a pattern has emerged: Washington sets the agenda, Beijing adapts with precision, and Brussels capitulates. What emerges is a bipolar order where Europe has relegated itself to the role of financier and cheerleader.
Trump plays poker, Xi plays go and Europe struggles with simple puzzles. Within five months, Trump secured defense spending commitments previous presidents only theorized about. While China’s rare earth export restrictions forced Washington into rapid recalibration, Europe responded with nothing but hollow laments. The asymmetry reveals everything: One bloc wields leverage, another answers with resolve, and the third writes checks.
Trump’s return exposed the EU’s strategic failures. Instead of setting boundaries or leveraging collective power, leaders defaulted to flattery toward Washington and scapegoating toward Beijing. The ‘antidiplomacy’ weakens the EU on China while offering America servitude without guaranteed returns.
Where Mexico and Canada bargained, Europe genuflected without conditions. Where China retaliated decisively, Europe escalated rhetoric and surrendered substance. The latest example: Four days after Washington conceded to Beijing in a rare earths deal, von der Leyen launched a new offensive against China on the same issue – as if the agreement had never happened.
Timing shouldn’t ruin a well-staged display of servility: Her G7 speech preached toughness while ignoring Europe’s real vulnerabilities. Accusing China of “weaponizing” its dominance while relying on it for 99% of rare earths is like demanding fair play in a knife fight – a measure of how well her de-risking policy proceeds. Apparently, she has yet to grasp what great powers do: They use leverage. Then came the admission: “Donald is right,” showing how Brussels handed over control long ago.
The subsequent defense spending capitulation proved equally abject. Leaders like Merz, Macron, and Sánchez agreed – without any public debate – to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. No questions, no rationale. Trump didn’t need to demand it; they volunteered their own surrender. While European analysts obsess over his populism and threats to democracy, they miss what matters – he’s getting exactly what he wants.
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