by STEPHEN BRYEN
As the US celebrates its Memorial Day weekend, remembering its fallen war heroes, the situation in Ukraine has shifted dramatically.
While a week ago Ukrainian leaders were confident that they could drive the Russians from Ukrainian territory, now it appears they are heading for a major defeat in the Donbass region, the area of Eastern Ukraine that stretches all the way down to the Azov Sea and beyond.
If the Russians do defeat the main force of Ukraine’s army, or trap them in an unfolding pincer operation, Ukraine will inevitably have to reach a settlement with Russia.
All of this could happen very quickly. The US and European press, in particular, has started to tell the real story of the unfolding battle, after weeks of disgorging Ukrainian propaganda on how they were slaughtering Russian forces.
Now, with the tables turned, leaders in the US and in NATO, and especially the British, are likely to be almost as unhappy as the Ukrainians.
No matter what deal may be made, and one seems likely if the Russians give a green light, the West will have another big black eye, and NATO membership will look less and less attractive.
The US is hurrying to send new types of weapons to Ukraine, including HIMARS, a high mobility precision rocket system. These will have to be yanked from war stocks, which could very well weaken US capabilities elsewhere, especially in East Asia.
But even if the US resolves to send HIMARS, it is probably too late for Ukraine’s resistance. Furthermore, the Russians have warned that there will be a price to pay if HIMARS is delivered and deployed.
The US could seek to send the HIMARS missile system to Ukraine. Image: Wikipedia
Nevertheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing the ground to reach a deal with the Russians. Whether he can do so, however, is altogether unclear.
For Zelensky, oddly enough, the good news is that the troops who could put a lot of internal pressure on him, the Azov Brigade of ultra-nationalists, are now mostly in Russian prisoner camps after losing in Mariupol.
They are not likely to be returned to action any time soon. While Zelensky has locked up his pro-Russian opponents and squeezed many others, the diplomatic front is a different kind of battlefield.
On May 13, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister General Sergei Shoigu, where he reportedly asked Shoigu for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
On May 19, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs (JCS) of Staff General Mark Milley called his Russian counterpart General Valery Gerasimov. Details of that discussion have not been publicly released, but it can be surmised it was another US push for a ceasefire.
So why is Washington suddenly in such a hurry to clinch a ceasefire? One explanation is that they already saw that the Russians were moving into a position to trap Ukraine’s army in Donbass and that there was no good way out.
Despite both phone calls – marking the first contact between Russia’s and America’s military since the Ukraine war started – no ceasefire was agreed. This probably touched off even greater alarm in Washington and among US allies who also are supplying tons of weapons to Ukraine.
It is easy to forget that part of the reason behind Biden’s almost irrational commitment to fight in Ukraine has been to cover up his massive failure in Afghanistan, marked by the hasty and chaotic retreat of American troops last August that allowed the Taliban to declare a clear victory.
MENAFN for more