As a national mandate, the 19th National People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2017 announced its“Two Centennial Goals”: the first is to complete building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way in China, which is to be achieved at the 100th anniversary of the CPC in 2021, and the second is to build the People’s Republic of China into a modern socialist power by 2049, the 100th anniversary of its founding.
There are a number of characteristics of a modern country. One is that China’s GDP per capita should reach at least half of that of the United States, the other most powerful country.
China is a large country, which includes the eastern coastal regions with relatively high income levels and the central and western regions with relatively low income levels. The GDP per capita in more developed Chinese provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong, which have a total population of 350 million, is at the same level as that of the US.
When two economies have the same level of GDP per capita and the same size of population, their technology and industrial achievement should also be at the same levels. Therefore, when the second centennial goal is achieved, the industry and technology in China’s more developed regions with a population of the size of the US will be at the same level as the US.
The fourth industrial revolution has now begun, and 2049 will mark an era in which new industries prevail. New industries in the Chinese regions with 350 million people should keep pace with those in the United States. The US has already changed its relations with China from a partner during the reform-and-opening-up era to that of a competitor.
Since the US became the world’s largest and strongest economy in the late 19th century, it has repeatedly suppressed the world’s second-largest economies that reached 60% of its GDP in order to prevent them from threatening its economic status. A recent example is Japan in the 1980s. At that time, Japan had an economic scale of more than 60% of the US and it surpassed the US in terms of GDP per capita. It was a world leader in the emerging semiconductor sector. As the world’s number one power, the US used its hegemonic advantages to suppress Japan’s semiconductor industry. Japan’s GDP per capita has now declined to 63% of the US while its GDP is only 24% of the US.
Based on market exchange rates, China’s economic scale has now reached 70% of the US. China’s 5G technology has become the world leader in the new industrial revolution. In the past few years, the US has repeated its old tricks and suppressed Chinese companies with groundless accusations, using all of its national resources. If the US succeeds in suppressing China by means of a blockade in the new industrial revolution, China will not be able to achieve its second centennial goal.
How can China break through the US blockade? It can only do this by working hard to lead the new industrial revolution. Then it will not be blocked, but will reach the technological level of the United States in its developed provinces, and achieve a national per capita GDP equal to half of that of the US by 2049. Therefore, it is a necessity for China to lead the new industrial revolution in order to achieve its second centennial goal by 2049.
China’s capability to lead the new industrial revolution
In order to achieve this great goal of national rejuvenation, it is necessary for China to lead the new industrial revolution. But are the conditions there to accomplish this?
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