by MARCO CARNELOS
The possibility of foreign interference cannot be dismissed, with Riyadh and Tel Aviv both potentially motivated to push for regime change
An attempted coup was reportedly foiled in Jordan last week. But according to a reliable Middle East scholar with inside knowledge of the events, if a coup indeed took place in Amman, it was one led by the kingdom against the popular Prince Hamzah.
Jordan has long been burdened by internal fragilities, and faces a geopolitical conundrum, as brilliantly summarised by one analyst. The majority of its population is of Palestinian origin, while its ruling class comprises traditional East Bank tribes and families who have pledged their allegiance to the Hashemite dynasty since its rise to power a century ago.
In the last two decades, the country, which has a weak economy and few resources, has been further afflicted by waves of refugees and collapsed trade since the 2003 US-led Iraq invasion and the 2011 Syrian uprising.
Buffer state
Jordan is a kind of buffer state, compelled to juggle ambitious neighbours with dangerous regional agendas, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, along with export instability and radicalism spilling out from Syria and Iraq. Considering the tensions generated by the Arab Spring in the last decade, its survival to this day verges on a miracle.
The kingdom’s security has always been guaranteed by Israel and the US, while its economic survival has relied on the benevolence of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies, along with the US. Without them it would be bankrupt.
The security relationship with Israel has enjoyed a long period of stability, built upon the excellent cooperation between their respective intelligence services, which has helped to foil numerous hostile projects. Jordan’s stability is essential for Israel’s security. More recently, however, this cooperation has suffered from the increasing right-wing turn in Israel.
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