By Zafar Sobhan (Economic & Political Weekly)
The Awami League-led government in Bangladesh, which completed 100 days in office, has received public approval, as expressed in opinion polls, for its management of the economy and for how it tackled the Bangladesh Rifles mutiny. The one explicit concern of citizens is that the AL cadre, including the student wing of the party, have begun to be involved in criminal acts, exactly as they did during the 1996-2001 government of the party. Overall, despite tensions that continue to simmer beneath the surface and in the face of economic problems, the elected government of Sheikh Hasina seems to be in a stable position.
Zafar Sobhan (zsobhan@hotmail.com) is op-ed editor, The Daily Star, Dhaka.
The first 100 days of the new Awami League (AL)-led government have come and gone, and the indications are both that the government seems to be performing in a reasonably creditable manner, but, equally important, that the popularity which swept it to a landslide victory in national elections last December shows no immediate signs of ebbing.
The Daily Star conducted a country-wide poll on the first 100 days, carried out by the polling firm, A C Neilsen, and the results can only be read as highly encouraging for Sheikh Hasina and her government. Fully 70% of the poll’s respondents thought that the country was heading in the right direction following the December 2008 elections, and 80% indicated that they were either satisfied or highly satisfied with the incumbent government’s performance so far. Similarly, almost 60% of respondents indicated that they approved of the fledgling government’s handling of the economy, and over 70% approved of the government’s measures to address inflation and bring down the prices of essentials, which had been the public’s number one concern prior to the election.
Managing the Economy
Indeed, the polls merely reflect the stewardship of the economy by the government, with two veteran ministers, A M A Muhith at finance and Motia Choudhury at agriculture at the helm of the two ministries that are most crucial in terms of keeping the prices of essentials within the reach of the ordinary citizen and ensuring that the economy remains on an even keel.
Despite the economic devastation being wrought all over the planet, Bangladesh’s economy has remained remarkably buoyant, with no major fallout yet observed in its garment exports or in the flow of remittances, which are the two pillars of the economy and the foreign exchange reserves.
The central bank has tussled with the World Bank and other independent analysts on the figures for economic growth, but there seems to be a general consensus that growth will not dip below 4.5% in the current fiscal year, with the government putting the figure closer to 6.5% right at par with the country’s average over the past 15 years of democratic rule. Even the lower estimate would be a creditable showing for the government in these difficult times.
In addition to the global financial crisis, the government has also inherited a power crisis, and, as the nation is finding out due to excellent media coverage over the past month, environmental pollution threatens to render the capital city Dhaka unlivable within a decade unless drastic and immediate steps are taken to curtail industrial pollution and to ensure that the rivers in and around the environs of Dhaka city are free of untreated sewage and toxic waste.
Of course, the solutions to crises such as these take years to implement, but the encouraging thing for the government is the indication that the average voter is well aware of the limitations of what can be achieved in a short period of time, and has the patience and maturity to give the government both the time required to make a dent into pre-existing problems and the benefit of the doubt while the processes are ongoing.
Deteriorating Law and Order
The noteworthy exception to the government’s quietly competent performance and the only one that has raised the ire of the public is the deteriorating law and order situation. It is a sad but true observation that law and order is typically better both under a state of emergency and under a non-elected government, and certainly there has been a rise in crime since the lifting of the emergency and the elections of 29 December 2008.
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