by CARLOS JOLY
The scariest question that pops up when thinking about a second Donald Trump presidency is, “How bad can it get?” Many commentators say it means the end of American democracy as we know it and the end of the vision of a liberal society—an American Dream of social justice and economic well-being inaugurated by Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. Trump himself does not spell out in detail what he might do in practice, keeping his campaign harangues to racist and anti-“woke” generalities, promises of tax cuts, personal insults, and standard pro-business talk. Two sources, however, provide a pretty good indication of what he would do: first, the right-wing think tanks’ roadmaps for Trump, such as the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025; and second, the actions and rhetoric of Javier Milei, the president of Argentina since his election in November 2023.
Milei’s Basic Law and Project 2025
Milei, a narcissistic and megalomaniacal libertarian, is the first Trump administration on steroids—what they both stand for and want to implement is perfectly portrayed in Milei’s slogan: “Government by Chain Saw.” Government by chain saw is evident in what Milei submitted for approval to the Argentine Congress as the Ley de Bases(link is external) (Basic Law), made up of 234 articles. The Basic Law was approved by the Chamber of Deputies in June 2024 and by a tie-breaking vote in the Senate. Opposition by labor unions and street protestors began in reaction to the quickly worsening economic situation(link is external) for the lower and middle classes(link is external) brought on by Milei’s measures. The political class, however, faced with the budgetary and prosecutorial power of the presidency, has chosen to align with Milei’s policies rather than with the nation’s best interests.
Given their ideological similarities, much of Milei’s agenda overlaps with what Trump would likely execute in one way or another if reelected. In their recent, much-discussed conversation on X, Trump and Elon Musk(link is external) praised Milei’s economic and social policies, celebrating his mass firing of government employees and drastic reduction of government programs. (They failed to mention that the cuts are primarily in education, health care, and social services.) The Basic Law’s salient elements are:
- Declaration of a state of national emergency for one year to administratively enact the administration’s new agenda in energy policy, economic policy, and finance.
- Additional executive powers to take whatever actions are necessary to implement the Basic Law.
- Privatization of natural resources and major state companies, including infrastructure, which basically means a fire sale to Wall Street.[1]
- Closing down public institutions like public TV and public radio and support for other cultural institutions (akin to shuttering NPR, PBS, and the National Endowment for the Arts in the US).
- Defunding public universities and the CONICET (National Scientific Research Council).
- Labor reform that would make firings easier and less costly to employers.
- Tax reform that would reduce taxes for those with higher wealth and income.
- Tax haven pardons, meaning that those who have not reported income and wealth held abroad, and have thus avoided taxes, will pay only 2.5 percent over five years on what they now declare—basically a lifetime Christmas gift to tax cheats.
- Loss of Argentine judicial sovereignty by granting jurisdiction to non-Argentine tribunals (read US courts) for any commercial disputes or investment disputes arising from privatization.
- Cancelation of Argentine legislation and judicial standing over all environmental aspects of investment in mining, oil, and gas by foreign corporations.
- Defunding environmental protection programs, canceling the protection of native forests, and ending the requirement for public audiences in granting environmental impact approvals.
- Granting the federal executive the right to restructure or close down provincial or regional government agencies, such as those involved in environmental protection, as it sees fit.
In addition, Milei and his interior minister, Patricia Bullrich, have adopted a tough-on-protestors policy, with forceful police crackdowns against picketing and demonstrations.
Milei ‘s ideology was shaped by the economists Friedrich Hayek and Murray Rothbard(link is external), a founder of the US Libertarian Party(link is external), and it shares libertarianism’s radical distrust of the state and faith that markets know best. On social matters, Milei mirrors Trump in opposing diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs(link is external) and abortion. He aligns perfectly with the traditional Argentine right’s nationalistic Catholicism and its sympathy for heavy police repression to the point of supporting outright military dictatorship—sympathy echoed in Trump’s desire to deploy the US military(link is external) against domestic civilian protestors. And like Trump, Milei is quick to label as “communist” any political opponent who advocates income redistribution through taxation of the wealthiest or an industrial policy that does not favor carbon-based energy. Of course, the alliance between libertarian economics and authoritarian rule is an old story—the “Chicago Boys,” Latin American economists in thrall to Milton Friedman and the Chicago School of economic thought, figured prominently in the regime of Chile’s Augusto Pinochet(link is external).
Compare Milei’s program with what the Project 2025 (PDF file)(link is external) “180-day playbook” (titled Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise) is proposing that Trump implement, as summarized by Steve Corbin(link is external):
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